中英字幕预览
If I'm asking myself, Chamath, how do I underwrite SpaceX at 2 trillion? Here's the basic math that I would do.
如果我问自己，Chamath，我该如何承销估值2万亿美元的SpaceX？以下是我会做的基本计算。Well, last year it did 18, $19 billion. It'll probably do 25 to 30 this year.
嗯，去年它的营收是180到190亿美元。今年可能会达到250到300亿。Okay, so I'm buying this thing at a fairly costly premium, right?
好吧，所以我以相当昂贵的溢价买入这个东西，对吧？So what am I buying? Well, I'm buying probably the most important internet infrastructure project
那么我在买什么？嗯，我买的可能是最重要的互联网基础设施项目。that's happened since the internet itself. That's gonna scale to hundreds of millions of users. And the reason that's gonna scale
这是自互联网本身出现以来最重大的项目。它将扩展到数亿用户。而它能扩展到数亿用户的原因to hundreds of millions of users is it's just very useful and it's just gonna become cheaper and cheaper and cheaper. So that's number one.
能扩展到数亿用户的原因就是它非常有用，而且会变得越来越便宜。所以这是第一点。I'm buying a delivery infrastructure. I think over time, GDP plus 10, GDP plus 15,
我买的是送货基础设施。我认为随着时间的推移，GDP+10，GDP+15，kind of a grower. So good business, valuable business, but it's the underlying platform that allows everything else to happen.
算是增长型业务。所以是好的业务、有价值的业务，但正是底层平台让其他一切成为可能。And then I'm buying an AI business, which will be at the top level of the apps, but at the bottom layer, all the compute capability.
然后我买的是一家人工智能业务，它在应用层面处于顶层，但在底层则拥有所有的计算能力。So I suspect what happens is next year, it's probably 40, 45 billion.
所以我猜测明年情况是，营收可能达到400到450亿美元。And then the year after that, it probably doubles again. So then I'm buying it at 20 times revenue. And you would say, well,
再下一年，它可能再次翻倍。所以我以20倍营收的价格买入。你可能会说，嗯，why can you buy a company like this on revenue versus earnings and cashflow? And I think the reason is because what the revenue does
为什么你能按营收而不是盈利和现金流来买入这样的公司？我认为原因是，营收的作用